Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1.011549 1.235641 1.475679 1.749732 2.051863 2.372857 2.737783
2024-10-06 0.702777 1.000323 1.345433 1.765875 2.255634 2.800502 3.445174
2024-10-13 0.535533 0.860810 1.261390 1.771834 2.387966 3.092974 3.946744
2024-10-20 0.397410 0.729677 1.165231 1.744949 2.467946 3.315995 4.363560
2024-10-27 0.356656 0.717623 1.210677 1.884924 2.742342 3.762555 5.036954
2024-11-03 0.317785 0.700125 1.243348 2.004822 2.990043 4.176984 5.673885
2024-11-10 0.284816 0.684847 1.274453 2.119442 3.229284 4.580627 6.298630
2024-11-17 0.256852 0.672213 1.305839 2.232233 3.465218 4.980372 6.919947
2024-11-24 0.216375 0.630930 1.290660 2.278246 3.612901 5.270183 7.408145
2024-12-01 0.173471 0.576359 1.249605 2.283943 3.704828 5.488642 7.808363
2024-12-08 0.124823 0.498117 1.163518 2.219511 3.699126 5.580970 8.051213
2024-12-15 0.085534 0.425956 1.078242 2.149179 3.680006 5.652136 8.264597
2024-12-22 0.059209 0.375883 1.028291 2.134041 3.743443 5.840492 8.640627
2024-12-29 0.043388 0.346568 1.011555 2.168108 3.875574 6.120052 9.135340
2025-01-05 0.028507 0.310011 0.976128 2.169225 3.958601 6.333376 9.544696
2025-01-12 0.015848 0.268320 0.924682 2.140860 3.997203 6.486850 9.877522
2025-01-19 0.015604 0.282931 0.987123 2.297859 4.303154 6.996238 10.667334
2025-01-26 0.014237 0.290850 1.035772 2.432760 4.578129 7.465769 11.407975
2025-02-02 0.012686 0.296740 1.080151 2.561048 4.844361 7.924863 12.136950
2025-02-09 0.011192 0.301903 1.122952 2.687114 5.108161 8.381870 12.864895
2025-02-16 0.007407 0.287088 1.121327 2.738438 5.262869 8.693295 13.406398
2025-02-23 0.003645 0.262021 1.094082 2.744795 5.350615 8.914403 13.831508
2025-03-02 0.000662 0.220746 1.023446 2.672904 5.319957 8.973995 14.046457